Reconciling disagreement over climate–conflict results in Africa

Kyle and I have a paper out in the Early Edition of PNAS this week:

Reconciling disagreement over climate–conflict results in Africa
Solomon M. Hsiang and Kyle C. Meng

Abstract: A recent study by Burke et al. [Burke M, Miguel E, Satyanath S, Dykema J, Lobell D (2009) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(49):20670– 20674] reports statistical evidence that the likelihood of civil wars in African countries was elevated in hotter years. A following study by Buhaug [Buhaug H (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107 (38):16477–16482] reports that a reexamination of the evidence overturns Burke et al.’s findings when alternative statistical models and alternative measures of conflict are used. We show that the conclusion by Buhaug is based on absent or incorrect statistical tests, both in model selection and in the comparison of results with Burke et al. When we implement the correct tests, we find there is no evidence presented in Buhaug that rejects the original results of Burke et al. 

Related reconciliation of different results in Kenya.

A brief refresher and discussion of the controversy that we are examining is here.