Ted at TED

Ted Miguel gives a TED talk explaining our work on climate and conflict.

I've been waiting a month to use that title.


USF's IDEC Masters Program Now Recruiting

The University of San Francisco's Masters program in International and Development Economics is currently accepting applicants through early March. The program is fairly unique among econ masters programs for having 3 semesters of econometrics (I teach the first class in the sequence), and a mandatory field work portion during the summer between years one and two. It also offers a mix of elective classes in applied micro and international / macro that one would normally be hard pressed to find at the Master's level, including Alessandra Cassar's Experimental Economics class and my survey course in Environment and Development Economics. Graduates complete an original thesis under the advisory oversight of a faculty member, and recent topics have spanned the gamut from in-utero impacts of rainfall shocks in Bangladesh to determinants of gender-differentiated competition in China. If you or someone you know is interested in pursuing graduate education in development and has a bent towards quantitative methods, drop me an email and we can chat.


Ambient carbon dioxide affects human decision-making

Amir Jina and I recently visited William Fisk at LBL who pointed us to his fascinating study:

Usha Satish, Mark J. Mendell, Krishnamurthy Shekhar, Toshifumi Hotchi, Douglas Sullivan, Siegfried Streufert, and William J. Fisk

Background: Associations of higher indoor carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations with impaired work performance, increased health symptoms, and poorer perceived air quality have been attributed to correlation of indoor CO2 with concentrations of other indoor air pollutants that are also influenced by rates of outdoor-air ventilation. 
Objectives: We assessed direct effects of increased CO2, within the range of indoor concentrations, on decision making. 
Methods: Twenty-two participants were exposed to CO2 at 600, 1,000, and 2,500 ppm in an office-like chamber, in six groups. Each group was exposed to these conditions in three 2.5-hr sessions, all on 1 day, with exposure order balanced across groups. At 600 ppm, CO2 came from outdoor air and participants’ respiration. Higher concentrations were achieved by injecting ultrapure CO2. Ventilation rate and temperature were constant. Under each condition, participants completed a computer-based test of decision-making performance as well as questionnaires on health symptoms and perceived air quality. Participants and the person administering the decision-making test were blinded to CO2 level. Data were analyzed with analysis of variance models. 
Results: Relative to 600 ppm, at 1,000 ppm CO2, moderate and statistically significant decrements occurred in six of nine scales of decision-making performance. At 2,500 ppm, large and statistically significant reductions occurred in seven scales of decision-making performance (raw score ratios, 0.06–0.56), but performance on the focused activity scale increased. 
Conclusions: Direct adverse effects of CO2 on human performance may be economically important and may limit energy-saving reductions in outdoor air ventilation per person in buildings. Confirmation of these findings is needed.

From the LBL press page
On nine scales of decision-making performance, test subjects showed significant reductions on six of the scales at CO2 levels of 1,000 parts per million (ppm) and large reductions on seven of the scales at 2,500 ppm. The most dramatic declines in performance, in which subjects were rated as “dysfunctional,” were for taking initiative and thinking strategically. “Previous studies have looked at 10,000 ppm, 20,000 ppm; that’s the level at which scientists thought effects started,” said Berkeley Lab scientist Mark Mendell, also a co-author of the study. “That’s why these findings are so startling.” 
The primary source of indoor CO2 is humans. While typical outdoor concentrations are around 380 ppm, indoor concentrations can go up to several thousand ppm. Higher indoor CO2 concentrations relative to outdoors are due to low rates of ventilation, which are often driven by the need to reduce energy consumption. In the real world, CO2 concentrations in office buildings normally don’t exceed 1,000 ppm, except in meeting rooms, when groups of people gather for extended periods of time. 
In classrooms, concentrations frequently exceed 1,000 ppm and occasionally exceed 3,000 ppm. CO2 at these levels has been assumed to indicate poor ventilation, with increased exposure to other indoor pollutants of potential concern, but the CO2 itself at these levels has not been a source of concern. Federal guidelines set a maximum occupational exposure limit at 5,000 ppm as a time-weighted average for an eight-hour workday.


Spatial Data and Analysis

I developed a new course last fall title "Spatial Data and Analysis". Because several people have asked for the material, I've finally posted the syllabus and assignments online here

Description of the course:
The recent explosion of spatially explicit data and analytical tools, such as "Geographic Information Systems" (GIS) and spatial econometrics, have aided researchers and decision- makers faced with a variety of challenges. This course introduces students to spatial data and its analysis, as well as the modeling of spatially dependent social processes and policy problems. Students will be introduced to the types, sources, and display of spatial data. Through hands-on analysis, students will learn to extract quantitative information from spatial data for applied research and public policy. Students will be introduced to spatial statistics, spatially dependent simulation, and spatial optimization. Students will learn to think creatively about spatial problems through examples drawn from economics, politics, epidemiology, criminology, agriculture, social networks, and the environment. The goal of the course is to equip advanced masters students and doctoral students with tools that will help them be effective analysts and communicators of spatial information in their future research or policy-related work. Because hands-on analysis plays a central role in the class, students will benefit from prior experience with basic computer programming -- although prior experience is not required. Prerequisites: introductory statistics or equivalent.